Ah the big early season flip flops of the ol GFS good for sh*t weather models. Dont you love it?
I'm not holding my breath on any winter storm over the next week - but yesterday's charts looked great with a strong closed low developing in the central plains accompanied by an arctic intrusion and strong gradient producing wintery, windy conditions -- right? right?
Hello, GFS? make up your mind?
Of course I know that this is par for the course - definately this early out, and not to discount this - also know to rely strongly on ensembles and cross model comparison. For these reasons I am not holding much hope on this one - because the GFS is coming in line with ensembles, not the other way around.
The good news is this winter being the first storm I dont have a bias to point to with past winter storms yet - this is the first - so I wont really know till it's 2 or 3 days out. Which is coming closer and closer. Time will tell - but I really, really need some meteorological excitement. After all, there's no severe weather - that's gone until springtime.
